Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025: Where Are Gold Rates Headed Amid US-China Trade Tensions?
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, As India celebrates Akshaya Tritiya 2025 on April 30, millions of Indians are looking to invest in gold — a symbol of wealth and prosperity. This year, however, gold prices are not just influenced by festive demand but are also being shaped by significant global economic shifts, including weak US economic indicators and continued US-China trade tensions. With gold prices showing both resilience and slight corrections, what is the outlook for the yellow metal in the near term?
Let’s break down the current trends, global economic triggers, and expert predictions to understand where gold prices might be headed in the coming days.
Gold Price Snapshot (as of April 29, 2025)
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025,
- International Spot Gold: Fluctuated between $3,299 and $3,349, settling around $3,322, down 0.65%.
- MCX Gold June Futures: Traded near ₹95,640, down about 0.40%.
- Support Level: $3,260 (₹93,800)
- Resistance Level: $3,372 – $3,400 (₹97,000)
Global Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, Despite the auspicious occasion of Akshaya Tritiya, global factors are dominating gold market movements. Here’s what’s driving current trends:
1. Weak US Economic Data
A slew of underwhelming economic indicators from the United States have highlighted the potential for a slowing economy:
- Trade Deficit: March’s US advance trade balance came in at a record -$162 billion, far worse than the expected -$145 billion.
- JOLTs Job Openings: Dropped to 7.19 million, below the forecast of 7.5 million, hitting the lowest since early 2021 (excluding Sept 2024).
- Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to 86, the lowest since May 2020.
These signals point to softening consumer sentiment and weaker job market expectations — key indicators of a cooling economy.
2. US-China Trade Standoff
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, Trade relations between the US and China remain tense. While US President Trump recently signed orders to remove tariffs on some auto imports, hoping to stabilize the economy, China has largely withheld from engaging in fresh trade negotiations. However, Beijing has temporarily suspended tariffs on several US products, giving rise to cautious optimism in the market.
This uncertainty in global trade, especially between the world’s two largest economies, continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset.
3. Global Inflation and Central Bank Responses
- The European Central Bank (ECB) may pause interest rate cuts, citing inflationary concerns.
- ECB’s 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations came in hotter than expected, at 2.9% and 3.3% respectively.
With central banks treading carefully amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, gold remains an attractive option for investors seeking stability.
Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, According to Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan:
- Gold remains well-supported unless a breakthrough occurs in the US-China trade situation.
- Investors are advised to adopt a “buy on dips” strategy.
- Upside targets are likely to be capped at $3,400, with strong resistance at $3,372–$3,400 or ₹96,500–₹97,000.
- Strong support lies around $3,260 or ₹93,800.
The overall sentiment continues to favor bullishness, but only moderately, due to near-term resistance levels and reduced ETF inflows.
Gold ETF and COMEX Trends
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025,
- ETF Holdings: As of April 28, global gold ETF holdings stood at 89.072 million ounces, the lowest since mid-April.
- Holdings have declined for five consecutive days, signaling profit booking.
- COMEX Inventory: Down over 7% from its April 4 high, now at 41.619 million ounces, suggesting reversal of gold flows back to London.
This drop in ETF holdings and COMEX inventory might reflect investor caution, but also hints that a bottom could be forming in physical demand.
What to Watch: Upcoming Economic Data
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, Investors should keep an eye on the following key data points expected on April 30 and the first week of May:
- US ADP Employment Change (April)
- US Q1 Advance GDP
- Real Personal Spending (March)
- Germany CPI and PPI
- China’s April Manufacturing & Services PMI
Any weaker-than-expected data could further boost gold prices as recessionary fears grow.
Should You Buy Gold on Akshaya Tritiya 2025?
Gold Price Prediction on Akshaya Tritiya 2025, Given the combination of auspicious timing and macroeconomic uncertainty, many financial experts believe gold remains a wise addition to portfolios — especially if prices correct slightly from current highs.
If gold dips toward its support level of ₹93,800, investors may find a relatively favorable entry point. However, those expecting immediate gains should be cautious, as resistance at ₹97,000 could limit near-term upside.
Conclusion: Near-Term Gold Price Prediction
As of now, gold prices on Akshaya Tritiya are expected to trade in a narrow range, with the possibility of testing ₹96,500 to ₹97,000 on the upside if trade tensions do not ease. On the downside, strong support is likely around ₹93,800.
Unless the US and China show signs of resolving their trade dispute or the US economy significantly recovers, gold is expected to stay firm — buoyed by global uncertainty and central bank hesitancy on further tightening.